The Pattern of Bubbles

i've seen this movie before. At least 3 times. Probably more. Each time, the script remains eerily similar, only the buzzwords change.

In the early 2000s, i was at Novell, the second-largest networking company behind Microsoft at the time. We were a solid, established corporation with a clear identity. Well, clear identity until the dot-com fever struck.

Confusion rippled through our halls when management announced we were rebranding as Novell.com. The expensive marketing campaign felt like watching a middle-aged professional showing up to work in teenage clothes, desperately trying to fit in with a crowd they didn't belong to.

We weren't really a "dot-com" - whatever that meant - and when the bubble burst, we had to sheepishly rebrand back to just Novell. A costly lesson in staying true to yourself.

Then came blockchain. i watched in complete amazement as the Long Island Iced Tea Corporation, yes, a company that literally made iced tea, attempted to transform itself into the Long Blockchain Corporation.

The absurdity of it still stings. A beverage company suddenly declaring itself a technology pioneer. Their stock soared, briefly making the madness seem justified. But reality has a way of asserting itself. The SEC investigations followed, then the NASDAQ delisting, and finally, the complete dismantling of a once legitimate iced tea business. All because they couldn't resist the siren song of the latest tech trend.

Now, as i watch history rhyme once again with AI, frustration and anger well up inside me. Companies are falling all over themselves to rebrand as "AI-first" or append ".ai" to their names. The same patterns emerge. Inflated valuations, soaring stock prices, and a desperate race to attract talent and investment dollars. i wouldn't be surprised to see an ice cream company declare themselves "an AI company that happens to sell ice cream."

The bubble will burst. It always does. The question isn't if, but when, and who will be left standing in the aftermath. The survivors probably won't be the ones who gambled their identity on a trend. They'll be the companies that saw AI for what it is, a tool to enhance their core business, not a replacement for it.

i've witnessed too many stable, visionary companies throw away their future chasing shortterm hype. The pattern is clear, the warning signs are there, written in the ashes of dot-coms and blockchain pivots.

Much Love 💛